Macro-Wyckoff campaign report for EUR/USD (Q1 2026):
Rate Differential Direction:
Current situation:
- Fed has cut rates multiple times through late 2025 but further cuts in 2026 are uncertain with some forecasts now calling for no cuts this year. (Business Insider)
- ECB is holding rates steady at restrictive levels, not cutting in the near term. (Reuters)
Market may have priced Fed cuts into 2026, but official signals are more mixed → differential is stabilizing, not clearly narrowing.
Incentive for EUR strength exists only if markets price in Fed easing more aggressively than ECB, otherwise differential remains stable.
Inflation & Policy Momentum:
- US inflation still above 2%; Fed internal views differ on path of cuts. (Investopedia)
- Eurozone inflation broadly on a disinflation path toward ECB target, reinforcing ECB pause. (Equiti Default)
ECB neutral stance vs uncertain Fed easing → incentive edge slightly favors EUR if markets lean toward cuts.
Central Bank Narrative:
- Fed: neutral stance with some internal calls for future cuts. (Barron’s)
- ECB: reiterated hold and data-dependence, no imminent cuts. (Reuters)
Narrative builds conditional expectation of Fed easing relative to ECB — a potential catalyst for EUR/USD upside.
Relative Growth & Risk:
- U.S. growth forecasts strong but slowing, unemployment modest. (Wall Street Journal)
- Eurozone growth modest and stable. (FXEmpire)
- Risk environment mixed; dollar strength recent. (Trading News)
Weak growth divergence — risk regime is neutral.
Macro Incentives (Quarter):
☑ Neutral/leaning EUR
☐ Strong USD bias
☐ Clear divergent trend
Current macro suggests EUR/USD could trend higher if markets aggressively price future Fed easing and ECB remains on hold.
Wyckoff Structure:
- EUR/USD has cleared 1.15+ resistance ranges with breakout momentum. (Investing.com)
- Recent price action shows higher highs later in Q4 2025. (FXEmpire)
Structure has shifted toward bullish dominance with breakout acceptance — supports accumulation if macro confirms incentives.
Outlook for Q1 2026:
If market pricing rapidly converges toward more Fed cuts than ECB, then EUR/USD remains in a Mark-Up phase.
Key Macro Triggers to Watch:
- Fed minutes & dot-plot shifts showing cuts probability rising.
- US inflation surprises weakening USD.
- ECB communication confirming steadfast hold (no cuts).
Invalidation Conditions
- Fed signals pause or hawkish bias with inflation resilience.
- ECB pivots to cuts (would reverse the differential).
Quarterly Macro Campaign Summary:
Campaign Direction: Long EUR/USD,
Macro Edge: Market expected Fed easing > ECB easing,
Driver: Rate differential narrowing due to potential Fed cuts,
Risk: Macro prints push Fed hold / inflation stubborn,
Lead Indicators: OIS pricing shifts, Fed dot plot, CPI surprises,
Concise Macro Bias Statement:
EUR/USD expected to trend higher in Q1 2026 if markets price widening Fed-ECB policy gap (Fed cuts priced) while ECB stays on hold; incentive edge weak without clear pricing shifts.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this Campaign Macro report is intended for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice, a trading recommendation, or a signal to buy or sell any currency or financial instrument. All analysis reflects historical and current market interpretations and may change at any time. Readers/Subscribers should conduct their own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making any trading or investment decisions. The author and platform do not accept any liability for gains or losses resulting from the use of this content.