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EUR/USD Campaign Macro (Q1 2026) – Update March 2026
- khalid
- March 3, 2026
- 0
In March 2026, the EUR/USD incentive campaign macro must be understood as a tactical operation inside a structurally incomplete macro transition. We are not trading a new regime. We are extracting value from the current incentive landscape while it persists. The pair is trading near 1.17–1.18, after a year in which the euro appreciated materially against the dollar. The broader narrative that carried EUR/USD higher into late 2025 was driven by relative policy convergence: the European Central Bank stepping into a stable, non-aggressive stance while markets increasingly priced eventual easing from the Federal Reserve. That narrowing expectation gap reduced the dollar’s structural carry advantage and incentivized euro accumulation on dips. However, March introduced a complicating factor: geopolitical stress linked to…
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